Cocaine Use Prevalence Estimation and Policy Analysis

Client:  National Institute of Justice, US Department of Justice

Authors/Consultants: Homer J

A system dynamics model reproduces a variety of national indicator data reflecting cocaine use and supply over a 15-year period and provides detailed estimates of actual underlying prevalence. Sensitivity testing clarifies the source of observed trends.  Alternative scenarios with possible policy implications were simulated and projected.  In one analysis, the model was applied to determine the potential impact of policies involving a relaxation of law enforcement.  The model suggests that a policy that eliminates both drug seizures and retail-level arrests would reduce the criminal justice load, but could lead to a large increase in cocaine use and addiction.

Publications:

– Homer J.  A System Dynamics Model of National Cocaine Prevalence. System Dynamics Review, 9(1): 49-78, 1993.

– Homer J.  System Dynamics Model for Cocaine Prevalence Estimation and Trend Projection. Journal of Drug Issues, 23(2): 251-279, 1993.

– Homer J.  Projecting the Impact of Law Enforcement on Cocaine Prevalence. Journal of Drug Issues, 23(2): 281-295, 1993

– Homer J. A Dynamic Model of Cocaine Prevalence in the United States.  In System Dynamics, ed. Y Barlas, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), available at http://www.eolss.net. Developed under auspices of UNESCO, EOLSS Publishers, Oxford, UK. 2004.

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